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Home » Strategies and bets on boxing: how to bet and how to win

Strategies and bets on boxing: how to bet and how to win

Boxing is a sport undergoing a lot of controversy in recent years. Yet, despite how often it’s spoken down upon, viewing figures remain to be sky-high for many fights. And, as shown on Match.Center, boxing remains to be a very popular sport to bet on. Below are some tips and strategies on how to improve at betting on boxing.

Research

Before any bet we place, we should take some time to perform some basic research. Even if we know most of it from the top of our heads, it can eliminate mistakes and recency bias. Some things to consider when researching are the overall record of the boxer, accomplishments, career length, lifestyle, damage taken, and form.

So, recent form and damage taken are useful measures of whether a boxer is past their peak. And, if they are, our opinions of them as a fighter may change. For example, the Pacquiao vs Mayweather fight. These fights are often long overdue, so be sure to consider recent form, damage, and lifestyle into account.

Stay away from celebrity fights

Celebrity boxing is fun for many, there’s no denying it, but it’s rarely serious or competitive. Even if they claim it is licensed and a ‘real’ competitive fight, there’s a serious lack of data to help inform our bets. For example, when Jake Paul and Tommy Fury were set to fight, it was genuinely difficult to gather up enough research to make a good bet. We have only seen Jake Paul fight truly unique fights against retired MMA stars, whilst Tommy hasn’t fought any big names in boxing. So, unless you’re extremely in tune with assessing talent independently without context, it’s going to be hard to make a good bet. It certainly won’t be well-researched.

When betting on the winner

When betting for the outright winner of a fight, consider the research above in conjunction with the odds. What we’re looking for is good value, not just the better boxer. So, if you can find an underdog at 4/1 who you think has a 50/50 chance of winning, that sounds like great expected value. 

There are some other factors to consider too, such as reach advantage, boxing style, weaknesses, and how hungry the fighter is. So, we know Deontay Wilder has the hardest punch in boxing, so it’s worth considering how strong the jaw is of the opponent. Sometimes the more technical boxer has an advantage, like with Usyk vs AJ, but then the size difference between Fury vs Usyk might be too big to ignore.

Finally, it’s also important to consider the popularity of a fighter. For boxers who are beloved, they may be receiving a lot of bets unjustly. This will be reflected in the odds being shortened, which is usually a good time to bet against them and get good value

Where is the fight?

Finally, a huge part of boxing is where the fight is taking place. When it’s in a fighter’s hometown or home country, the atmosphere will play into that and give the boxer an advantage. Furthermore, it can also cause hometown bias with the judges, sadly, so you may want to avoid backing someone who often goes the distance if they’re not at home. In other words, only back someone who won’t leave it to the judges’ decision. Or, the opposite for a fighter on their home turf.