A lot has been written and spoken about in the build-up to this Saturday night’s big fight – Deontay Wilder v Tyson Fury.
For one, it’s the most significant heavyweight fight since the days of the last entirely undisputed heavyweight king, Lennox Lewis.
Boxers, media have cast masses of opinions and fans alike – with the consensus is becoming similar throughout.
My thoughts are this fight goes only one of two ways. While as things stand, you can begin to rule out some theories from the outset partially.
- Deontay Wilder WILL NOT OUTBOX Tyson Fury
- Tyson Fury highly unlikely to KO Deontay Wilder
- A DRAW could only happen if Wilder scored two or more knockdowns
Based on this trio potentially not being on the cards, you’re looking at the following scenarios:
- Wilder KO’s Fury
- Fury wins on points
Wilder will be looking to start fast and take Fury out early. Tyson will have to weather a storm or two in the opening three or four rounds. This scenario will be critical to the rest of the contest.
Should Fury come through the first six in good shape, the fight pattern would favor the Brit.
Dependent on the judging being fair and square, it’s impossible to see how Wilder can outbox Fury. Although many said the same about Tony Bellew against Oleksandr Usyk, he was up on the cards when he got stopped.
Even saying that, Fury is too elusive at heavyweight and should be able to limit Wider’s windows of opportunity to around one every two rounds.
Fury may well be wobbled, he may even go down. But it’s the manner of how he takes these blows and whether they land full and flush – which is Fury’s key to victory.
A three-minute round where Wilder fails to land a significant punch will be in the bank for Fury, so theoretically he only needs to do this SEVEN times in the bout to take the title.
Obviously, we then go back to the officials and Fury would need to rely on those rounds going in his favor – as they always should.
To get the win, or even a draw – as stated above, Wilder needs to put Fury down at least twice to even the fight.
It’s hard to imagine Wilder moving around with Fury and outboxing him for enough rounds to nick it on the scorecard. This will force the American to throw haymakers from the outset.
Essential for Wilder is that he times his attacks and holds back energy. He cannot jump on Fury, expending his tank at any and every opportunity.
If he does this, he throws his game plan out the window. If he then fails to get Fury out of there, that’s when the danger comes into play.
Weighing in heavier than expected on the scales means Fury will also be aiming to spoil the fight. Leaning on the lighter, Wilder while on the ropes in order to sap his energy.
Wilder needs to keep his distance as Fury attempts any rough-house tactics. For me, it’s just so tough to pick which way it goes.
This contest really can sway either way and it will be fascinating to witness the outcome.
The best bets out there would be the following:
Deontay Wilder KO 1-6 rounds @ 9/2 (Boosted by SkyBet)
Deontay Wilder 9-12 rounds @ 5/1
Tyson Fury by decision @ 5/2
Tyson Fury to be knocked down and fight to go the distance @ 13/2
PREDICTION: Going out on a limb. Tyson Fury wins via unanimous decision (115-111) after picking himself up off the floor, maybe more than once.
Phil Jay is Editor of World Boxing News. Follow on Twitter @PhilDJay